U.S.-China Competition for Technological Dominance: Artificial Intelligence Could Be the Deciding Factor
Unapologetic Take:
Frank Kendall Warns of Potential 2027 Taiwan Crisis, Stresses AI as Decisive Factor
Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall recently reminded us that China is hell-bent on taking Taiwan by 2027 and outdoing the U.S. in key areas, with artificial intelligence (AI) being a significant game-changer if conflict kicks off. At a tech conference, Kendall declared China's military readiness to tackle Taiwan by 2027, should the U.S. intervene, and warned of the escalating risks involved.
In the panel discussion at the Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium, Kendall echoed his prevailing message throughout his tenure – China has rapidly grown more potent, erasing U.S. military advantages, and poses a grave and immediate threat.
Chinese president Xi Jinping has ordered the military to prepare by 2027 to take Taiwan and overpower the U.S., if necessary. Kendall stated, "They're working day and night to meet that goal. I have no idea what Xi Jinping will do in 2027, but I'm pretty sure that, come that year, his military will tell him they're ready, and we'll be in a period of more significant risk."
This heightened risk is intensified by the fact that China has designed its forces to neutralize American "high-value assets", like satellites, large military bases, aircraft carriers, command and control nodes, and logistical hubs. Instead of relying on a massive standing army, China has focused its investments on advanced technology and even stolen U.S. intellectual property. This has put them on top in the development of cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons and the construction of a formidable targeting satellite system and automated battle management system.
China is also extending their reach to attack long-range assets, like tankers and command and control aircraft, which traditionally have been safe from threat due to their operating range. In essence, the U.S. and China are locked in a race for technological superiority, as opposed to a traditional arms race focusing on a numbers game like battleships.
Kendall emphasized, "AI is the enabling technology for all sorts of advances we're making. There are people who have said that the AI competition is essentially going to determine who's the winner in the next battlefield. I don't think that's too far-fetched."
Rather than viewing AI as a generic catchphrase, Kendall sees it in terms of the specific applications it offers, including pattern recognition, automation, decision-making, and support functions. In Eastern Europe and Middle Eastern battlefields, these applications have already reinvented the essence of warfare.
One of the Air Force's most notable AI applications is the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. In May, Kendall flew in the X-62 VISTA F-16, which boasts AI agents for dogfighting. The computer on board was fed a scenario and competed against live-crew adversaries. "We performed this experiment with numerous contractors and multiple versions of the software, and it worked exceptionally well," Kendall said. The CCA program is progressing rapidly, requiring billions of dollars in funding that correlates with microelectronics development.
Arati Prabhakar, of the White House Office of Science and Technology, joined Kendall on stage and likened the AI revolution to former Defense Secretary William Perry's push for stealth, GPS, and other transformative capabilities in the 1970s. "At the time, Perry testified before Congress, claiming that these technologies would provide us with a 40-year advantage, as no other nation had access to these technologies. Well, 40 years have passed, and he was correct. However, we're no longer the sole contender in advanced technology."
Prabhakar stressed that breakthrough research is essential, but it is even more important to develop the means to develop and implement it promptly. Kendall agreed, saying, "Technology development depends first on exquisite, deep knowledge to create breakthroughs and move forward. However, once that breakthrough has been achieved by specialists, generalists can apply that technology to a wide range of applications. Therefore, we need both—specialists to make advancements and generalists to make practical applications of those advancements."
Insights:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) plays a crucial role in contemporary military applications for both the U.S. and China, impacting sectors like surveillance, reconnaissance, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. AI offers decision support systems and facilitates real-time data analysis and networked systems. Competition between the U.S. and China in AI is brisk, with both countries pushing to develop superior AI capabilities.
China has made significant strides in AI, and its advancements, like the DeepSeek model in generative AI, have raised concerns about losing the AI race. China is also increasing its focus on indigenous semiconductor development and forging partnerships in the global AI ecosystem.
The US-China race in AI concerns not just the creation of AI models but also the shaping of global digital ecosystems and standards. US restrictions on semiconductor exports to China impact China's efforts to progress in AI. The Collaborative Combat Aircraft program integrates AI for autonomous flight systems, real-time data analysis, and networked systems, making it a significant advancement in military AI.
- The potential 2027 Taiwan crisis, as warned by Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, could see China deploying advancements in hypersonic weapons and targeting satellite systems, supported by their formidable automated battle management system.
- Kendall highlighted the importance of artificial intelligence (AI) in the modern battlefield, emphasizing its role in pattern recognition, automation, decision-making, and support functions, transforming the essence of warfare.
- China's military is prepared to take Taiwan by 2027, ready to neutralize American high-value assets like satellites and large military bases, extending their reach to attack long-range assets.
- The race for technological superiority between the U.S. and China is not just about the creation of AI models, but also about shaping global digital ecosystems and standards, with the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program being a significant advancement in military AI.
- Arati Prabhakar of the White House Office of Science and Technology likened the AI revolution to the push for stealth, GPS, and other transformative capabilities in the 1970s, but acknowledged that China is no longer the sole contender in advanced technology.
- To maintain their edge, both the U.S. and China invest heavily in artificial intelligence, with China making rapid progress, and worrying advancements like the DeepSeek model in generative AI, posing concerns about lost technological dominance.
