Structural Reality as a Conceptual Blueprint
In the rapidly evolving world of Artificial Intelligence (AI), understanding the complexities of the market isn't just about the latest models or technologies. A new analytical tool, the Structural Reality Framework, is shedding light on the deeper forces at play.
This framework offers a comprehensive approach for interrogating reality, providing valuable insights for operators, investors, and policymakers. By applying it, one can produce scenario planning and risk assessment, enabling a company betting on European AI growth to consider factors such as the EU's energy mix, the treatment of growth risk in EU capital markets, and geopolitical dependencies with the U.S. and China.
The geopolitical landscape is a complex tapestry, and the Structural Reality Framework helps untangle it. Key actors include the BRICS countries, notably China, India, and emerging Southeast Asian members like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, seeking to reshape global governance and economic power away from Western-dominated institutions. Russia and its allies, such as Belarus and the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk republics, aim to reassert influence in Eastern Europe and challenge Western democratic values, particularly through the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Western countries, including the US and EU, are involved in multilateral security and defense policies and countering hybrid threats and foreign interference. These geopolitical struggles centre mainly on multipolar global governance, regional dominance in Eastern Europe, and democratic versus authoritarian value conflicts.
The advantage in strategy goes to those who see through the layers, understanding how geopolitics, macroeconomics, infrastructure, and markets are interconnected and constrained by deeper forces. The market fight in AI is not just about models but also about structures cascading down. For instance, NVIDIA's GPU chokehold, U.S. industrial policy subsidizing semiconductor fabs, and U.S. export controls preventing China from closing the gap are all crucial aspects of this deeper reality.
The core insight of the Structural Reality Framework is that markets are the surface expression of deeper realities. Analysts who start at the bottom (geopolitics, macroeconomics, infrastructure) see the constraints that define what markets can and cannot do. With the Structural Reality Framework, we're not just peering into the future of AI; we're understanding the very foundations upon which it rests.
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