South California is Set to Experience El Niño Conditions
The upcoming winter season is being closely monitored by researchers, as predictions indicate the potential return of an El Niño event. To better understand and forecast the impact of El Niño on Southern California's climate, scientists are turning to the Southern California El Niño Index (SCEI).
The SCEI, a regional index developed by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, focuses on sea surface temperature anomalies in coastal Pacific waters near Southern California. This index complements broader global indices like the Niño3 or Niño3.4, which monitor equatorial Pacific SST anomalies.
By detecting thermal anomalies closer to California waters, the SCEI offers more precise monitoring and prediction of local climate responses to El Niño. This targeted information is crucial for informing decision-makers, resource managers, emergency planners, and policymakers about potential risks and impacts specifically for California.
One key tool in gathering data for the SCEI is an autonomous underwater glider named Spray, which monitors water temperature and other parameters off Dana Point, California. The Spray data are distributed by the Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS), a region of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS).
The SCEI's records show that changes in temperature at the equator are quickly matched off California. This regional perspective enhances forecast accuracy and relevance, bridging broad ENSO monitoring with localized impact assessment.
In the past, El Niño events have gone undetected until they were well underway, causing significant economic loss worldwide. To avoid such situations, NOAA is forecasting a probability of El Niño conditions at 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaching 80% during the fall and winter.
To prepare for potential El Niño events, Scripps oceanographers are collaborating with the Naval Research Laboratory to improve a fine-resolution Navy model used to analyze El Niño among other phenomena. The NSF California Current Ecosystem Long-Term Ecological Research (CCE-LTER) program at Scripps also plans several studies of the effects of the 2014-15 El Niño on life in the California Current.
In addition, Leinen and NOAA officials are alerting federal funding agencies to the potential need for rapid-response measurements of ocean conditions during El Niño events. The SCCOOS, a multi-institutional network sponsored by NOAA and the California State Coastal Conservancy, makes ocean data available to the public and entities such as the Naval Oceanographic Office, further aiding in the understanding and preparation for El Niño events.
Before the onset of El Niño conditions, researchers will be gathering baseline measurements of coastal features using light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and satellite data. This data will provide valuable insights into how the coastal environment may respond to the predicted El Niño.
In summary, the Southern California El Niño Index plays a crucial role in El Niño prediction and monitoring by measuring local oceanic temperature anomalies that influence California’s climate. By providing actionable data to inform local decision-makers about potential environmental and economic impacts specific to Southern California, the SCEI contributes significantly to the region's preparedness for El Niño events.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-019-0230-6 [2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016703716302155 [3] https://www.atmosphere-ocean.mit.edu/research/projects/southern-california-el-nino-index
The SCEI's record of sea surface temperature anomalies in Southern California's coastal waters highlights the connection between climate-change phenomena like El Niño and local environmental conditions. This data, gathered through technology such as autonomous underwater gliders like Spray, is vital for science and environmental-science communities in forecasting and understanding the potential impacts of sea level rise and climate-change events on the region.
Scientific collaborations, like the one between Scripps oceanographers and the Naval Research Laboratory, aim to improve predictive models and develop technology that can better anticipate and mitigate the effects of El Niño on California's environment and economy. These efforts demonstrate the importance of science, technology, and interdisciplinary cooperation in addressing complex environmental challenges.
