Rapid Progress in China's Electric Vehicle Market: Accelerating Sales from Half to Three-Fourths within Remarkable Time Frames
China Aims for 80% Electric Vehicle Adoption by 2030
China is set to lead the global transition towards electric vehicles (EVs), with projections indicating that around 80% of new car sales could be electric by 2030. This rapid shift is a result of deliberate industrial strategy, policy integration, and strong government support.
As of mid-2025, plug-in vehicles (BEVs + PHEVs) account for about 50-53% of new car sales in China, with BEVs alone making up close to a third (31-32%) of new vehicle sales. This demonstrates a fast-growing market, with the share of EVs set to increase over the coming years.
The Chinese government has made EVs a strategic industry, investing over $230 billion since 2009 to boost EV and battery sectors. This includes generous buyer subsidies, tax breaks, government procurement, R&D investment, infrastructure spending, and trade-in incentives for scrapping internal combustion engine vehicles. These consistent policies create a strong foundation for sustained growth.
There is also an ongoing EV price war in China, with average EV discounts at 10%, helping accelerate adoption. By comparison, ICE vehicles see even higher discounts, but the trend supports EV competitiveness.
China’s advanced manufacturing ecosystem for EVs, batteries, and critical supply chains lowers costs and attracts both domestic and international automakers. Best-selling vehicles in China increasingly include EVs, including local models priced competitively. By mid-2025, around 10.3% of all vehicles on Chinese roads are new energy vehicles (NEVs), indicating a growing installed base.
The combination of shorter average driving distances, denser urban environments, and less entrenched cultural attachment to combustion in China means there are fewer barriers to full electrification. The public fast-charging network in China is growing quickly, and state-owned oil companies have started converting forecourts to fast-charging hubs and investing in power services.
Independent gas stations in city centers are facing falling volumes due to the shift towards electric vehicles. Gasoline demand in many urban areas could drop enough to change the economics of fuel retailing and repair services by 2030.
Subsidy tapering in 2026 and 2027 could create a temporary dip in demand, but the strong momentum behind EV adoption in China is expected to continue. By the middle of 2024, China had about 12.8 million charging points across public and private networks. On the current trajectory, China could reach 60% of new sales in EVs by 2025.
Fleet share in China could reach one-third around 2030 and the halfway point in the early to mid-2030s. Once fleet share reaches certain levels, the economic case for maintaining gasoline distribution and ICE-specific service capacity in many cities will weaken sharply.
In conclusion, China's rapid rise in electric vehicle sales is due to a deliberate industrial strategy, policy integration, domestic manufacturing, and infrastructure buildout. With around one in ten cars on the road already being electric, and one in three cars expected to be electric by 2030, China is well on its way to achieving its ambitious electric vehicle adoption goals.
- The Chinese government's policy of offering incentives, such as subsidies, tax breaks, and trade-in incentives for EVs, plays a significant role in driving the innovation in the renewable-energy industry and the electrification of the automotive sector in China.
- The finance sector is also intrigued by the prospects of the growing electric vehicle market, as the increase in electric vehicle adoption could potentially disrupt traditional financing models related to oil and internal combustion engine vehicles.
- The Chinese government's consistent investment in data-and-cloud-computing technology will, in turn, promote the development of smart electric vehicles, improving the charging infrastructure and optimizing energy distribution among electric vehicles.
- The ongoing shift towards electric vehicles in the Chinese industry is causing a stir in the podcast world, as numerous shows are dedicated to discussing the latest developments, challenges, and future prospects of this fast-growing sector.
- Newsletters covering renewable-energy and the electric vehicle industry are becoming increasingly popular, offering up-to-the-minute news on battery technology improvements, policy changes, and advancements in finance, data-and-cloud-computing, and technology that support the electric vehicle revolution.
