Nuclear Loop-the-Loop: A Project About Repeating Atomic Reactions
Poland, known for its reliance on coal for electricity, is considering a significant shift in its energy mix. The Polish energy system is among the least diverse in the European Union, with 78% of all electricity derived from coal-fired sources in 2017. However, the trend of decreasing coal usage in Poland's energy mix is slow but irreversible.
The Polish government has expressed intentions to build six nuclear reactors, a move that poses a significant risk due to the complexity of constructing a nuclear power plant. This ambition was reinforced when the Polish and US governments signed a memorandum in June 2020 to explore and support cooperation on nuclear reactor construction. The US is expected to be the main shareholder in the power plant.
The proposed location for the nuclear power plant is in Żarnowiec at the Baltic Sea coast. The Polish Minister of Energy, Krzysztof Tchórzewski, envisions up to six nuclear reactors being built in Poland by 2043. However, it remains unclear whether Polish politicians genuinely want a nuclear power plant, as the construction of the nuclear power plant was abandoned after the Chernobyl incident.
The construction of a nuclear power plant is technologically and administratively complex, and betting on nuclear power is very risky due to the uncertainty of ultimate cost and connection to the grid. The rising price of carbon dioxide emissions allowances is causing serious trouble for the Polish economy, making the need for a low-emission source to fundamentally change the energy mix more pressing.
One of the most significant concerns regarding the nuclear power plant is its cost. The estimated cost of the entire investment is approximately PLN 130 billion. The Finnish Olkiluoto3 plant, a single 1600 MW reactor, experienced a three-fold increase in construction cost from €3 billion to €8.5 billion.
Subsequent analyses and discussions about the nuclear power plant have occurred over the years, but no concrete decisions have been made. The construction of the first 1-1.5 GW reactor is planned to start up by 2033, but whether this ambitious timeline will be met remains to be seen.
The Polish government's plenipotentiary for strategic energy infrastructure, Piotr Naimski, and Rick Perry, the former US energy secretary, recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation in civil nuclear energy. This step was meant as a strategic move to advance feasibility and partnership discussions while the government’s final political decisions remained open.
In conclusion, Poland's nuclear ambitions represent a significant shift in the country's energy policy. While the prospect of nuclear power offers a potential solution to Poland's reliance on coal and the rising costs of carbon emissions, the complexity and cost of nuclear power plants, as well as the ongoing political debates, present significant challenges. Only time will tell if Poland will successfully navigate these challenges and move towards a more diverse and sustainable energy mix.
