Mixed Actions Found in Wheat Publication
In the wheat market, key indicators are revealing a mix of trends for the 2025/26 season.
KC HRW futures are slipping back by 2 to 3 ¼ cents at midday, while Dec 25 MGEX Wheat is at $5.99 ¼, up 4 ¼ cents. On the other hand, Dec 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.37 ¼, down 1 ¾ cents, and Dec 25 KCBT Wheat is at $5.38 ½, down 3 ¼ cents. MPLS spring wheat is trading with 4 to 5 cent gains at midday, while CBT futures are trading with contracts down 1 to 2 cents.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, U.S. wheat production is slightly lower compared to the previous year but remains robust, with total wheat production forecast at about 1,927 million bushels. Key U.S. wheat classes like Hard Red Winter are expected to see increased production, while Hard Red Spring and White wheat production is projected lower.
U.S. wheat exports are forecast to rebound significantly, rising by 25 million bushels to 875 million bushels—the highest since 2020/21—driven by strong export sales and competitive pricing, especially for Hard Red Winter wheat which targets markets including Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, and Bangladesh. Increased exports and reduced domestic use cause ending stocks to tighten compared to previous estimates.
Globally, Russia is trimming its 2025 wheat harvest and export forecasts but remains focused on retaining its dominant position as the world’s leading wheat exporter, having opened access to 11 new markets and resumed sales to 7 countries. Russia exported 44 million metric tons last season and seeks to maintain its strong export presence despite a slightly reduced harvest forecast.
France’s wheat production in 2025 is rebounding, with harvest expected to rise around 30% from the rain-damaged 2024 crop to approximately 33.4 million metric tons, although this remains slightly below the 2017-2023 average due to reduced cultivated area. The French government projects soft wheat production near 32.6 million metric tons, in line with expectations and marking a recovery from the previous year’s shortfall.
In summary, the global wheat outlook for 2025/26 shows mixed production trends: - The U.S. has slightly reduced production but stronger export prospects and tightening stocks. - Russia is trimming harvest and export expectations but aims to sustain its export dominance. - France is recovering from a poor 2024 crop with a significant production increase, though still below average historical levels.
Global trade forecasts have modest upward revisions, reflecting growing import demand in some countries, with the U.S. positioned competitively on the export market. The USDA forecast for wheat exports is 45%, ahead of the 41% average pace. The wheat complex is mixed at midday, with winter wheats slipping back and soaring wheat posting gains.
For more information, please view the website Disclosure Policy here. The French Farm Ministry estimates the French wheat crop at 33.1 MMT, 0.5 MMT increase from last month. IKAR estimates the Russian wheat crop at 84.5 MMT, up 0.5 MMT from the previous projection. Sep 25 MGEX Wheat is at $5.78 ¾, up 4 ¾ cents, and Sep 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.16 ¾, down 1 ½ cents. Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. The USDA has the 2025/26 wheat export book at 10.309 MMT in shipped and unshipped sales.
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