Hogs exhibited consistent sales on Tuesday
The Lean Hog market is currently experiencing a mixed trend, leaning slightly towards a bearish to neutral outlook, according to recent analysis. This assessment is based on the price movements of Lean Hog Futures, cash hog prices, and the CME Lean Hog Index.
In the futures market, October 2025 Lean Hog futures closed around $90.125 with minor gains, but more recent data from August 19-20 shows a weakening trend with prices falling. For instance, October 25 hogs dropped to about $89.675. Similarly, December 2025 futures rose slightly to $83.450 initially, but they too have shown a decline, falling to $82.875. Meanwhile, February 2026 futures have increased to $86.250 as of mid-August 2025[1][5].
Cash prices have also been affected, with the USDA’s national base hog price declining recently, falling as low as $106.35 on August 12. However, it has hovered around $109 on some days. The CME Lean Hog Index has also shown losses, declining down to about $109.06 by August 18 from earlier highs near $110[1][2][3][5].
Analysts attribute these trends to a combination of factors, including tighter pork supplies and ongoing export demand. While export sales have been moderately strong, down compared to prior weeks, key markets include Japan, Mexico, South Korea, China, and Colombia. Domestic demand has been described as good, but price rallies are somewhat vulnerable to profit-taking and shifts in related markets like cattle[3][4].
Looking forward, analysts forecast tighter pork supplies continuing into 2026, which could support prices long-term. However, traders should watch for potential bearish triggers such as large fund sell-offs or softer cash market signals, balanced against bullish supply constraints and stable demand[1][3][4][5].
It's important to note that the price of Aug 25 Hogs is reported at $109.700, up $0.025, but no context was provided to understand this information without prior context[6]. Additionally, the CME Lean Hog Index is down 23 cents at $110.02 on August 8[7]. The USDA's estimated hog slaughter for a specific day was not provided in the available information[8].
In conclusion, while the short-term lean hog futures prices have seen modest declines from recent highs, market fundamentals reflect tight supplies and ongoing export demand that may sustain prices through 2025 and into 2026, albeit with volatility expected. Traders should remain vigilant and closely monitor the market for potential shifts in trends.
Sources: [1] https://www.agweb.com/markets/hogs/ [2] https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2021/08/18/cme-lean-hog-index-august-18-2021 [3] https://www.agweb.com/markets/hogs/commentary/ [4] https://www.agweb.com/markets/livestock/cattle/ [5] https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2021/08/20/usda-reports-hog-slaughter-august-18-2021 [6] https://www.agweb.com/markets/hogs/ [7] https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2021/08/08/cme-lean-hog-index-august-8-2021 [8] https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2021/08/20/usda-reports-hog-slaughter-august-18-2021
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