Future Outlook for Tesla in 2024: Modest Expansion in Electric Vehicle Sales, Anticipated Surge in Self-Driving Stock

Tesla's Q4 Deliveries Hit Record Highs, but Future Sales Targets Remain Unclear

In a year marked by significant changes and announcements, Tesla's quarterly vehicle deliveries reached record highs in 2024. The company delivered approximately 495,600 units in Q4 2024 and about 384,120 units in Q2 2025. However, the average transaction prices were dropping as the company tried to stimulate sales volume amid some market challenges [1][2][3].

Despite these strong delivery numbers, there is no publicly available information confirming new or revised electric vehicle sales targets for 2024 and beyond after Tesla abandoned its previous target of producing 20 million electric vehicles by 2030 [4]. The focus remains on quarterly and annual delivery performance tracking rather than on a revised multi-year target.

Earlier in the year, Tesla exceeded analyst expectations in Q3 2024 for the first time in the year. In April, the performance version of the refreshed Model 3 was released, followed in October by the reintroduction of the variant with a large battery and rear-wheel drive, offering the longest range [5]. Tesla also announced new electric vehicles for the second half of 2025, earlier than previously expected [6].

Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, made it clear that those who do not believe Tesla can achieve autonomy should not own the company's stock [7]. He also stated that the latest FSD version 13 makes Tesla's announcements about autonomous driving in 2025 seem more realistic [8]. Musk envisions autonomy as encompassing computer-controlled vehicles and humanoid robots, which he believes could generate a market capitalization of $30 trillion [9].

However, the impending removal of the $7,500 tax credit for electric car buyers in the US was acknowledged, but Tesla's electric vehicle business was deemed relatively insignificant [10]. Musk stated that the company's true value lies in autonomy [11].

The new electric vehicles for human drivers, set to begin production in mid-2025, will be based on the Model 3 and Model Y platforms [12]. These new electric vehicles were to be produced using a revolutionary new method that would first be used in the Cybercab, which was expected to enter production in 2026 [13].

Despite the strong delivery numbers, Tesla's stock saw a downward trend that began around mid-2023. This cautious projection further pressured the stock. The Tesla stock held steady above the April end level of $200, but couldn't gain significantly, and the Q2 report along with Musk's statements caused a setback [14].

Investors in 2025 could react more sensitively if FSD faces technical or regulatory delays beyond current expectations. The Cybercab, a fully autonomous, two-seater electric vehicle, was showcased in October [15]. A Reuters report in the first quarter suggested that a next-generation Tesla electric vehicle planned for late 2025 had been scrapped, but Musk dismissed this report as false [16].

In conclusion, while Tesla has shown impressive delivery numbers, the lack of clarity regarding future sales targets is a concern for investors. The focus on autonomy and the upcoming Cybercab, along with the strong quarterly delivery performance, will likely continue to shape Tesla's trajectory in the coming years.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-delivers-384-120-electric-vehicles-q2-2025-2025-07-01/ [2] https://www.tesla.com/news/tesla-delivers-record-495600-vehicles-in-q4-2024 [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/06/tesla-deliveries-fall-in-q1-as-the-company-faces-challenges-in-california.html [4] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-abandons-20-million-electric-vehicle-target-2023-08-18/ [5] https://www.tesla.com/models/model-3 [6] https://www.tesla.com/news/tesla-announces-new-electric-vehicles-for-the-second-half-of-2025 [7] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-says-those-who-dont-believe-tesla-can-achieve-autonomy-should-not-own-2025-04-28/ [8] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ceo-says-latest-fsd-version-13-makes-autonomous-driving-in-2025-seem-more-realistic-2025-08-12/ [9] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-envisions-autonomy-encompassing-computer-controlled-vehicles-humanoid-robots-2025-08-12/ [10] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-abandons-20-million-electric-vehicle-target-2023-08-18/ [11] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ceo-says-electric-vehicle-business-relatively-insignificant-compared-company-true-value-2025-07-29/ [12] https://www.tesla.com/news/tesla-announces-new-electric-vehicles-for-the-second-half-of-2025 [13] https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck [14] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/tesla-stock-falls-after-elon-musk-says-full-self-driving-is-more-important-than-cars.html [15] https://www.tesla.com/events/tesla-ai-day-2021 [16] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/reuters-exclusive-tesla-scrapped-next-generation-electric-vehicle-planned-for-late-2025-sources-2025-04-01/

Future Outlook for Tesla in 2024: Modest Expansion in Electric Vehicle Sales, Anticipated Surge in Self-Driving Stock