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Framework of Structural Reality

Markets don't operate independently; they reflect underlying structural forces that rarely manifest in quarterly reports, political meetings, or company plans. The Structural Reality Framework provides a systematic method for examining these layers, revealing how power, policies,...

Framework for Structural Reality
Framework for Structural Reality

Framework of Structural Reality

In the rapidly evolving world of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the race for dominance is not just about the models themselves, but the underlying structures that support them. This is the core insight of the Structural Reality Framework, a tool that provides a comprehensive view of the market landscape.

The Structural Reality Framework encourages operators, investors, and policymakers to delve deeper than the surface of the market, considering factors such as the EU's energy mix, the capital markets treatment of growth risk, and geopolitical dependencies with the U.S. and China when betting on European AI growth.

At the base of this framework lie geopolitics, macroeconomics, and infrastructure. Geopolitics sets the outer boundaries, defining the political and economic landscape within which AI can thrive. Macroeconomics directs the flow of capital, determining where investments are made and how they are allocated. Infrastructure, particularly in the domain of AI, is dominated by NVIDIA, with its powerful graphics processing units (GPUs) being the backbone of many AI systems.

The U.S., for instance, has been leveraging its industrial policy to subsidize semiconductor fabs, giving it an edge in the global race for AI superiority. Meanwhile, U.S. export controls have prevented China from closing the gap, creating a significant hurdle for Chinese AI development.

The Structural Reality Framework provides analytical tools for interrogating this reality. Reality Gap Analysis helps identify the gap between the current state and the desired state. System Fragmentation reveals the interconnectedness and interdependencies of various components. Hidden Driver Detection uncovers the less obvious factors that influence market behaviour. Constraint Mapping visualizes the constraints that define what markets can and cannot do. Power Distribution charts the distribution of power within a system.

The most influential sovereign wealth funds, primarily controlled by states like Norway, China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, are also guided by the Structural Reality Framework. These funds focus on promoting industries and technologies that align with their national interests, such as renewable energy, digital technologies, and semiconductor manufacturing.

In this complex and interconnected world, the advantage in strategy goes to those who see through the layers and understand the structures that make winning possible. Markets are not free-floating contests, but are constrained by deeper forces. By applying the Structural Reality Framework, we can navigate these constraints and make informed decisions about where to invest our time, money, and resources.

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