Bitcoin's price maintains above $117K despite retail traders' efforts, as a single large transaction by a 'whale' could potentially alter the entire market dynamic
In a recent analysis, Kushal Manupati of Binance suggested that the current setup could boost Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and potentially large-cap altcoins, provided that funding and Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflows remain stable. This statement comes in the wake of the US Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut for 2025, which, according to Manupati, creates a supportive setup for cryptocurrencies.
The market's stability around $117,500 has been decisively influenced by retail investors over the past two weeks leading up to September 2025. The collective weight of these smaller inflows has been sufficient to keep Bitcoin steady at its current levels. The absence of large whale inflows, specifically transactions of 100 BTC or more, is notable, suggesting that the market is not being swayed by concentrated buying power but instead by broader retail participation.
CryptoQuant's latest report reveals that inflows of 0-0.001 BTC amounted to nearly 97,000 BTC, and those in the 0.001-0.01 BTC range amounted to about 719,000 BTC, indicating a dominance of retail investors in the Bitcoin market. This balance between consistent retail inflows and muted whale activity has created a period of relative calm, allowing Bitcoin to consolidate near its highs.
Manupati advised watching ETF inflows and on-exchange depth; if those stay firm, market breadth should improve rather than fade. If this trend continues, the market could gradually build momentum toward testing the $120,000 level. The lack of large-wallet activity indicates that the market is not being influenced by a few large investors but instead by numerous small contributions.
However, the dependence on retail activity highlights a structural fragility in the market. A wane in enthusiasm among smaller investors or a sudden re-entry of whales could lead to abrupt volatility. The market could face abrupt volatility if enthusiasm among smaller investors wanes or if whales suddenly re-enter with significant inflows.
Manupati did not mention any abrupt volatility due to whale intervention or a wane in enthusiasm among smaller investors in this paragraph. He also did not mention the balance between consistent retail inflows and muted whale activity reducing the immediate risk of a sharp downturn in this analysis.
If Fed communication stays consistent, cross-border participation should increase across trading sessions, according to Manupati. From here, labor and inflation data will determine whether another cut is likely this year or whether the Fed pauses. In crypto, the supportive setup typically sustains demand for BTC and ETH and can expand to high-quality large-cap alts under stable funding and futures basis.
In conclusion, the current stability of Bitcoin near $117,500 is being shaped almost entirely by retail investors, and if the trends persist, the market could gradually build momentum toward testing the $120,000 level. However, it's essential to keep an eye on retail activity and potential whale activity to avoid any abrupt volatility.
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